Q & A for climate change

Jonathan Lash
Jonathan Lash is president of the World Resources Institute (WRI), whose research, analysis and policy recommendations provide practical solutions to global challenges of environment and sustainability. He is recognized internationally for his expertise on climate change, energy security, and resource, environment and development policies. Mr. Lash has broad experience with public policy processes at the international, federal and state levels, and with corporate and business practices worldwide.

He spoke with Natasha Gilbert of Nature News about the changes in the environmental climate in response to the changing political climate.

“History has taught us that the economy will bounce back. But nature does not do bailouts.”

Will Obama’s election affect the US stance on climate change?

I feel there is 100% certainty that the United States will re-engage with the international community. But there is 0% chance it will ratify the Kyoto protocol — this will not be the basis of climate-change negotiations. The negotiations will be very different now because our emissions have increased so much over the past 20 years and there are different political problems to be dealt with. The world’s two biggest emitters are the United States and China. There is a fear of China in the United States. There are concerns that if we regulate and they don’t, we will be at a disadvantage.

I hope that early in the Obama administration there will be a bilateral initiative between the United States and China to show their intention to reduce emissions. Obama does things that people say he can’t do, so I am optimistic.

Domestically, more than 80% of the votes in the exit polls said the president’s economic stimulus package should include green energy. I am sure that there will be a focus on green jobs. People understand this is a positive force for economic stimulation. The harder questions are: do we invest in carbon capture and storage, and do we adopt cap-and-trade legislation?

What effect will the economic downturn have on efforts to tackle climate change?

Current political attention is taken up with the banking system and getting people back to work. History has taught us that the economy will bounce back. But nature does not do bailouts.

But I am hopeful. The United Nations’ climate-change conference in Copenhagen next year is about looking forwards to after 2012, by which point we will be out of the recession. We are in a totally different time frame now.

How can developing countries adapt to climate change?

Increased economic, social and environmental resilience must be part of the response to the risks of climate change. Key to this is community ownership of local resources, such as rivers for fishing. Evidence shows that where people take ownership of resources, they look after them. But communities must also have the capacity to manage ecosystems competently, including the technical and business skills to make them a success. Lastly, communities must have connections to markets and networking opportunities to sustainably grow their nature-based businesses.

What is needed to reach a deal at Copenhagen?

Going into the negotiations, an alignment of interests between the United States and China would create the conditions for a deal. Both are dependent on coal and on imported oil.

Not all countries contribute equally to greenhouse-gas emissions and not all have equal capacity to deal with them. The Bali roadmap in 2007 was about expanding discussions to include developing countries, which said they were affected by climate change and wanted to be involved. A deal at Copenhagen also depends on satisfying these regional interests, including deforestation, technology and adaptation. But no one really knows how this will play out or what form this will take.

Coming out of the discussions, above all else we need a process that will lead to reduced emissions and to send a clear signal that we are going to tackle climate change. I don’t know if this should take form of binding commitments.

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29 Comments

  1. Negro says:

    DC,I think you should do a criqtiue of the Pearce Piece that Abdreas kindly linked us to I just posted this at NewScientist: Fred,This piece, (like your gross misrepresentation of Mojib Latif’s speech at the third World Climate Conference in 2009), is riddled with errors. Not to mention clearly being sympathetic towards the skeptics and being uncritical of the nefarious actions of the people like Mosher, McIntyre and Curry. These people want the best of both worlds, they attack, slander and defame climate scientists and then at the same time expect to be treated with respect and claim to want to reconcile . This is nothing but PR campaign by the skeptics Fred, and I’m sad to see that it seems you have bought it hook-line and sinker.Some points, there were probably not 28 climate scientists at the conference. Do you consider Goddard a climate scientist? McIntyre is not a statistician by training. You misrepresented Dr. Gavin Schmidt’s position on attending the conference (go to Eli Rabett’s place for clarification) it seems that you did not solicit his opinion before writing this. The workshop was also financed by the Gulbenkian Foundation do some research on them Fred, they have ties to big oil.The scientific literature has shown again and again that the observed warming can not be explained by ENSO or PDO or other internal climate modes, because they simply move heat around in the system. Trenberth et al. (2002, JGR) showed that +0.06 C of the +0.4 C warming (about 15%) observed between 1950 and 1998 was attributable to trends in ENSO.These internal climate modes are internal drivers which can act to mute or enhance the underlying warming trend from higher CO2, they cannot and do not explain the fact that the planet is in a net positive energy imbalance (Murphy et al. 2009). How can the climate scientists you and the skeptics are chastising be indifferent to these internal climate modes and oscillations when they have published papers specifically to investigate their role? Please think about this the skeptics love to make unsubstantiated and unsupported claims, because they know they cannot back them up. What does count in this game of skeptics is rhetoric, innuendo and opinions, not facts.This is yet another astounding example of the media failing us. To say I am disappointed by your partisan and uncritical and error riddled piece would be a gross understatement.I would complain to your editors, but previous experience has shown me that NewScientist has no interest in acknowledging or retracting errors on the climate file, especially it seems when those errors are made by you.For what it is worth I urge you to please correct the errors pointed out to you here and to revise or retract your piece. Thank you.

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